top of page
Search

BE A GAMBLER, BUT KNOW YOUR CHANCES!

,

The “Gambler-Effect”.


Part of gambling is the unknown outcome. This outcome is unknown, because its unpredictable. But let´s discuss the problem which is connected to this thought process.


We connect events that have happened in the past to events that will happen in the future by creating an artificial narrative. By itself that is good to survive. But only if two events are actually causally related. Otherwise the connection we built is nonsense and leads to wrong decisions.


People like to ignore the truth. So the problem gets even bigger if we think two events are causally related, but actually aren´t.


One reason why we do this is our need for order in our lives. To create order its necessary to analyse the past to predict the future. The good thing is that it mostly works. The bad thing is that if we get too obsessed with predicting future outcomes, we end up rationalizing unrationalizable events.


Right. If you do something infinitely often, you will probably find the correct probability for an event. Without a causally influence of event A to event B, the probability stays constant!


So there is a real chance that you could be the jackpot-winner today. But your chances won´t increase if you eat a pudding before, even if you won the last time you had a pudding before gambling.


Take a deep breath. The world can be chaotic sometimes.


Don´t rationalize everything. Otherwise the world could become even more chaotic than before.

23 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


bottom of page